Windows Live Sync vs. Live Mesh vs. SkyDrive: Which is Right for You?

The new Windows Live suite includes three different services for file storage and online synchronization. They are called Live Mesh, Windows Live Sync and Windows Live SkyDrive - all apps are available for free and you just need a Windows Live account to get started.

Windows Live SkyDrive

Windows Live SkyDrive is an online file storage service similar to Box.net. You can manually upload documents, pictures and other files to Windows Live servers via the browser and your uploads will remain accessible from any other computer or web-enabled mobile phone.

Windows Live SkyDrive requires no installation and you get 50 GB of free storage space though the maximum size of an individual file / document cannot exceed 50 MB. Each file or folder on SkyDrive has a unique Web address (URL), so you can easily paste that link into email messages or other documents for direct access.

Windows Live Sync

Windows Live Sync, formerly known as FolderShare, is a desktop app + web service that lets you sync files and folders across different computers. You can synchronize up to 20 folders containing up to 20,000 files each. Individual files cannot be larger than 4 GB in size.

Say you have music files stored in your home computer’s hard disk and want to access this collection from the Office computer. Simply install Windows Live Sync of both the computers and add "my music" folder to your "personal folders" - now your entire music collection will be accessible from either of these computers.

Windows Live Sync also lets you remotely access your files on the hard drive from any other computer via the browser without setting up synchronization. This is handy in situations like where you have to download a presentation from your work computer that’s saved on the desktop - just browse to the desktop folder via Live Sync website and download the file.

Other than online synchronization, Windows Live Sync also lets invite family members and colleagues (as readers, contributors or owners) to access certain folders on your computer though they will have to install the Live Sync software for this.

Windows Live Mesh

Live Mesh includes everything that Windows Live Sync has to offer plus two extra features - cloud storage and remote desktop (with support for copy-paste).

You first need to download the Live Mesh software and then select folders / files that you want to sync with other computers. The process is almost the same as Live Sync but here you can add folders for synchronization from Windows Explorer itself (right click any folder and click "Add Folder to Live Mesh") while Live Sync only offers a web interface to explorer.

When you add any folder to Live Mesh for synchronization, a copy of that folder gets stored online so you will always have access to your files even if the main computer is offline. This service is known as Live Desktop and offers 5 GB of online storage space.

Another important difference between Live Mesh and Windows Live Sync is Live Remote Desktop - Live Mesh lets you completely control the remote desktop just like other screen sharing application. You can even copy files and folders from the remote desktop to your local desktop through simple copy paste - copying folders manually is not possible in Windows Live Sync.

Both Live Mesh and Windows Live Sync offer clients for Windows and Mac but you may also install Live Mesh on mobile phones running Windows Mobile 6.1 or later.

Which Live Service is right for me? As expected, each of these Live services do have some overlapping features. Live Skydrive is for online storage, Live Sync is primarily for folder synchronization across computers (no storage) while Live Mesh offers a good mix of both though with limited storage space(5GB). Therefore my suggestion would be to go with SkyDrive as well as Live Mesh - you’ll get plenty of storage space plus remote desktop plus you can access important files from any other computer.

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Microsoft: The top 5 risks; Will it cut 2009 outlook as PC market stumbles?

The worries about Microsoft’s fiscal second quarter and fiscal 2009 are starting to pile up. While Microsoft is viewed as one of those recession resistant companies–no company is recession proof–the headwinds to the software giant’s quarter are becoming clear.

On Thursday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Holt lowered his second quarter and fiscal 2009 estimates. When Microsoft reported its first quarter results it provided conservative guidance, but acknowledged that the tech spending outlook was fluid. In a CNET News interview Bob Muglia, Microsoft’s server and tools chief, reiterated the company’s conservative view.

Holt reckons that the PC market has unraveled since Microsoft CFO Chris Liddell delivered the company’s outlook.

Holt isn’t alone. Bernstein analyst Jeffrey Lindsay in a report zooms out and figures that netbooks provide a significant wild-card to Microsoft’s business model on the consumer side of the equation. On the enterprise side, the biggest threat to Microsoft is software as a service. Add it up and Microsoft has some significant uncertainties ahead. Lindsay, however, thinks that the cloud computing as Microsoft killer argument is overrated. There will be a hybrid SaaS-software approach.

And as if PC demand, SaaS and other worries weren’t enough Microsoft is facing tight IT budgets. Benchmark Brent Williams argues that corporate customers are likely to push back on enterprise licenses once they come up for renewal.

Add it up and Microsoft’s estimates are falling fast on Wall Street. Williams shaved 6 cents a share of Microsoft’s fiscal 2009 estimate to $1.99 a share. He cut his 2009 fiscal revenue estimate by $850 million to $64.6 billion.

Holt upped the ante. Holt expects fiscal 2009 earnings of $1.84 a share on revenue of $62.2 billion, down from his prior target of earnings of $2.02 a share on revenue of $64.4 billion. Wall Street is currently expecting Microsoft earnings of $1.99 a share fully reported on revenue of $64.7 billion. Holt said in a research note:

Microsoft hasn’t negatively preannounced since Dec ’00. However, business conditions have deteriorated since MSFT guided in Oct. and we believe the company could come up short of its FQ2 targets.

With that gloom and doom in mind let’s examine the top concerns swirling around Microsoft.

The PC market

If Intel and AMD see their quarters unraveling what are the chances that Microsoft won’t be affected? Microsoft’s business still depends on the PC market to be healthy. Holt writes: 2009 will likely see a material deceleration in PC growth and longer term it will be harder for revenue to outgrow PC units. IDC is already projecting anemic PC demand of 3.8 percent in 2009.

Netbooks

The good news is that the PC market does have one growth engine–netbooks. For Microsoft, that’s also the bad news. To wit: Netbooks are often powered by Linux operating systems. Microsoft is using XP in netbooks with good success. The rub: Margins on XP and netbooks are lower than full-blown Vista laptops and desktops.

Microsoft acknowledges that it doesn’t know how netbooks will impact its business, but that didn’t stop Lindsay from making some educated guesses. Lindsay looks at Microsoft’s operating system revenue as a whole–including Windows Mobile.

Lindsay writes:

We believe that by 2012 approximately $850 million in revenues (or approximately 1% of Microsoft’s expected 2012 revenues) will move to other operating systems and stacks – such as Linux, the iPhone and Android. While the shift to netbooks and mobile devices is significant, we estimate that the impact on Microsoft’s operating system franchise will be of the order of $850 million (see Exhibit 20). While up to 30% of netbooks, we think, will choose Linux to keep costs down and another 20% will go for XP rather than Vista, the impact upon the installed base and the enterprise space we think will be limited. Typically, using XP over Vista represents a saving of $30 to a manufacturer who can also get away with less processing power. In the case of Linux, which is having something of resurgence thanks to netbooks, the savings can be greater (on the order of $55 per netbook) but gives a much less satisfactory user experience.

Here are Lindsay’s figures (click to enlarge):

Office and business applications

The IT spending outlook for 2009 is anemic at best and ugly at worst. While Forrester is predicting weak IT spending in 2009 Citigroup is seeing Armageddon ahead with budgets falling as much as 10 percent to 20 percent. Citigroup analyst Ashwin Shirvaikar, who covers the services sector, notes:

Many buyers – especially in the financial services vertical – seem to be considering IT budgets that are lower year/year by as much as 10%-20%. This kind of a decrease is sharply lower than our CIO survey from September, which indicated that IT spend would be down sequentially, but still up ~1% year/year. To put this in perspective, we have had overall IT spending at flattish only once before – in 2002 – while all other years the IT budget has grown. Clearly the credit crisis and global economic slowdown – especially with sharply negative news-flow that coincided with the budget season – is a contributing factor. There are many ways to achieve this lower budget target, but reduced pricing is normally the one that gets the most attention.

You can expect Microsoft to win some business in a down market based on pricing, but it’s likely that the software giant will get hit with some shrapnel.

The other wild-card: SaaS. If this downturn does push corporate buyers to SaaS, an applications model that appeals to bean counters, Microsoft’s core could be threatened. Lindsay estimates that $3.6 billion (5 percent of Microsoft’s projected 2012 revenue) will go to rivals pitching enterprise resource management applications enabled by SaaS.

Customer pushback

In my view, one of the biggest things to watch in 2009 will be customer-vendor negotiations. Customers, who have been milked in the name of vendor revenue growth, are going to push back. Microsoft won’t be any different, but is unlikely to see the degree of animosity that SAP is facing over maintenance price hikes.

Williams writes:

We don’t believe the business from corporate customers on Enterprise Agreement term licenses will be able to throttle back the scope of those agreements or to demand price concessions on renewals at this point, which currently supports the revenue stream from the PC and Office franchises. If IT budgets are under pressure for longer than we think (we currently expect some modest recovery in software spend growth late in 2009, with full recovery trailing behind a global economic upturn by 2-3 quarters), it is possible that MSFT may face new price pressure on EA renewals than in the past, especially if Windows 7 is late or has quality issues.

Is there an online strategy?

Analysts have two takes on Microsoft’s online business. On one hand the online business is a throwaway–an unprofitable unit that’s sort of a sideshow. Others worry that the online business will be a distraction from the real gravy train–Windows and Office.

My hunch: If Microsoft’s other businesses slip the online business will face increasing scrutiny. After all, if Microsoft really thinks advertising will mix with its software strategy someday it better get going.

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